Justin Gaethje
27–5–0 · Lightweight · Age 37 · 16 UFC fights
Skill (today)
+5.53
Uncertainty (σ)
0.81
As of
2026-09-13
Skill trajectory
Line: estimated skill after each fight. Band: ±1σ uncertainty.
Fight ledger
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Event | Model P(win), pre-fight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Ilia Topuria | Win | KO/TKO | UFC Freedom 250 | 24% |
| 2026-01-24 | Paddy Pimblett | Win | U-DEC | UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett | 34% |
| 2025-03-08 | Rafael Fiziev | Win | U-DEC | UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev | 57% |
| 2024-04-13 | Max Holloway | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill | 35% |
| 2023-07-29 | Dustin Poirier | Win | KO/TKO | UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 | 48% |
| 2023-03-18 | Rafael Fiziev | Win | M-DEC | UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 | 48% |
| 2022-05-07 | Charles Oliveira | Loss | SUB | UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje | 48% |
| 2021-11-06 | Michael Chandler | Win | U-DEC | UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 | 60% |
| 2020-10-24 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Loss | SUB | UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje | 28% |
| 2020-05-09 | Tony Ferguson | Win | KO/TKO | UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje | 32% |
| 2019-09-14 | Donald Cerrone | Win | KO/TKO | UFC on ESPN+ 16 | 60% |
| 2019-03-30 | Edson Barboza | Win | KO/TKO | UFC on ESPN 2 | 59% |
| 2018-08-25 | James Vick | Win | KO/TKO | UFC Fight Night 135 | 28% |
| 2018-04-14 | Dustin Poirier | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC on FOX 29 | 45% |
| 2017-12-02 | Eddie Alvarez | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 | 74% |
| 2017-07-07 | Michael Johnson | Win | KO/TKO | The Ultimate Fighter 25 Finale | |
| 2016-12-31 | Luiz Firmino | Win | TKO | WSOF 34: Gaethje vs. Firmino | |
| 2016-03-12 | Brian Foster | Win | TKO | WSOF 29: Gaethje vs. Foster | |
| 2015-09-18 | Luis Palomino | Win | TKO | WSOF 23: Gaethje vs. Palomino 2 | |
| 2015-03-28 | Luis Palomino | Win | TKO | WSOF 19: Gaethje vs. Palomino | |
| 2014-11-15 | Melvin Guillard | Win | DEC | WSOF 15: Branch vs. Okami | |
| 2014-07-05 | Nick Newell | Win | TKO | WSOF 11: Gaethje vs. Newell | |
| 2014-01-18 | Richard Patishnock | Win | TKO | WSOF 8: Gaethje vs. Patishnock | |
| 2013-10-26 | Dan Lauzon | Win | TKO | WSOF 6: Burkman vs. Carl | |
| 2013-06-14 | Brian Cobb | Win | SUB | WSOF 3: Fitch vs. Burkman 2 | |
| 2013-03-23 | Gesias Cavalcante | Win | TKO | WSOF 2: Arlovski vs. Johnson | |
| 2012-10-20 | Drew Fickett | Win | TKO | Unknown | |
| 2012-09-29 | Sam Young | Win | SUB | Unknown | |
| 2012-06-02 | Marcus Edwards | Win | DEC | ROF 43: Bad Blood | |
| 2011-12-17 | Donnie Bell | Win | TKO | ROF 42: Who's Next | |
| 2011-10-01 | Joe Kelso | Win | TKO | Unknown | |
| 2011-08-20 | Kevin Croom | Win | TKO | ROF 41: Bragging Rights! |