shin2chin the fight ledger

Events

How the model has done

Model accuracy66.5%
Model log loss0.617
Closing line accuracy68.3%
Closing line log loss0.594
Disagreement21.0%

All graded fights with a closing line since our event horizon began: 940.

What these numbers mean
Model accuracy
How often the side our model favored won.
Model log loss
Grades the probabilities themselves, and it punishes confident misses hardest. Lower is better; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.693.
Closing line accuracy
How often the bookmakers' final favorite won, on the same fights we graded ourselves on.
Closing line log loss
The same probability grade for the bookmakers' final line. Lower is better.
Disagreement
Share of fights where our pick differed from the bookmakers' favorite.
Closing lineModel65%70%75%2024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H12026 H2
ModelClosing line

Upcoming

DateEventBouts
2026-09-19UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 213
2026-09-26UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos11
2026-10-03UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang12
2026-10-10UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan1
2026-10-17UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott12
2026-10-24UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev9
2026-10-31UFC Fight Night2
2026-11-07UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady1

Past events

The model column is its graded pick record on the card: picks were computed before each fight and never edited.

DateEventBoutsModel
2026
2026-09-12UFC Fight Night125–5
2026-09-05UFC Fight Night136–2
2026-08-29UFC Fight Night114–1
2026-08-22UFC Fight Night113–5
2026-08-15UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry114–5
2026-08-08UFC Fight Night127–0
2026-08-01UFC Fight Night135–2
2026-07-25UFC Fight Night125–2
2026-07-18UFC Fight Night116–1
2026-07-11UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2148–3
2026-06-27UFC Fight Night126–4
2026-06-20UFC Fight Night123–4
2026-06-14UFC Freedom 25075–2
2026-06-06UFC Fight Night126–3
2026-05-30UFC Fight Night116–1
2026-05-16UFC Fight Night133–4
2026-05-09UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland139–4
2026-05-02UFC Fight Night137–4
2026-04-25UFC Fight Night134–3
2026-04-18UFC Fight Night122–1
2026-04-11UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg124–6
2026-04-04UFC Fight Night132–5
2026-03-28UFC Fight Night132–5
2026-03-21UFC Fight Night138–0
2026-03-14UFC Fight Night147–1
2026-03-07UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2124–5
2026-02-28UFC Fight Night137–0
2026-02-21UFC Fight Night148–2
2026-02-07UFC Fight Night137–3
2026-01-31UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2136–4
2026-01-24UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett116–3
2025
2025-12-13UFC Fight Night122–1
2025-12-06UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2149–2
2025-11-22UFC Fight Night148–1
2025-11-15UFC 322147–3
2025-11-08UFC Fight Night126–3
2025-11-01UFC Fight Night136–2
2025-10-25UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane126–3
2025-10-18UFC Fight Night135–4
2025-10-11UFC Fight Night127–3
2025-10-04UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2148–2
2025-09-27UFC Fight Night126–2
2025-09-13UFC Fight Night133–5
2025-09-06UFC Fight Night137–1
2025-08-23UFC Fight Night128–3
2025-08-16UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev123–4
2025-08-09UFC Fight Night127–2
2025-08-02UFC Fight Night127–2
2025-07-26UFC Fight Night124–6
2025-07-19UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3146–5
2025-07-12UFC Fight Night127–3
2025-06-28UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira116–3
2025-06-21UFC Fight Night123–4
2025-06-14UFC Fight Night126–3
2025-06-07UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2136–1
2025-05-31UFC Fight Night93–3
2025-05-17UFC Fight Night116–0
2025-05-10UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena126–3
2025-05-03UFC Fight Night127–2
2025-04-26UFC Fight Night149–1
2025-04-12UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes138–2
2025-04-05UFC Fight Night123–2
2025-03-29UFC Fight Night126–3
2025-03-22UFC Fight Night135–5
2025-03-15UFC Fight Night135–2
2025-03-08UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev104–4
2025-03-01UFC Fight Night104–4
2025-02-22UFC Fight Night125–3
2025-02-15UFC Fight Night125–3
2025-02-08UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2124–0
2025-02-01UFC Fight Night116–2
2025-01-18UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano136–4
2025-01-11UFC Fight Night144–3
2024
2024-12-14UFC Fight Night137–3
2024-12-07UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura148–5
2024-11-23UFC Fight Night135–0
2024-11-16UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic126–3
2024-11-09UFC Fight Night114–0
2024-11-02UFC Fight Night135–5
2024-10-26UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway139–2
2024-10-19UFC Fight Night114–3
2024-10-12UFC Fight Night125–2
2024-10-05UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree124–4
2024-09-28UFC Fight Night146–5
2024-09-14UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili106–1
2024-09-07UFC Fight Night127–2
2024-08-24UFC Fight Night112–3
2024-08-17UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya126–4
2024-08-10UFC Fight Night104–1
2024-08-03UFC Fight Night139–1
2024-07-27UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2148–4
2024-07-20UFC Fight Night113–5
2024-07-13UFC Fight Night114–4
2024-06-29UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2137–3
2024-06-22UFC Fight Night115–2
2024-06-15UFC Fight Night116–3
2024-06-08UFC Fight Night149–2
2024-06-01UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier129–1
2024-05-18UFC Fight Night126–1
2024-05-11UFC Fight Night126–4
2024-05-04UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg136–4
2024-04-27UFC Fight Night135–3
2024-04-13UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill138–2
2024-04-06UFC Fight Night125–1
2024-03-30UFC Fight Night134–4
2024-03-23UFC Fight Night134–4
2024-03-16UFC Fight Night124–2
2024-03-09UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2147–3
2024-03-02UFC Fight Night115–2
2024-02-24UFC Fight Night127–3
2024-02-17UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria124–2
2024-02-10UFC Fight Night135–3
2024-02-03UFC Fight Night123–4
2024-01-20UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis123–5
2024-01-13UFC Fight Night116–2