Rafael Natal
10–7–1 · Middleweight · Age 43 · 17 UFC fights
Skill (today)
+1.53
Uncertainty (σ)
1.53
As of
2026-09-13
Skill trajectory
Line: estimated skill after each fight. Band: ±1σ uncertainty.
Fight ledger
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Event | Model P(win), pre-fight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-07-22 | Eryk Anders | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC on FOX 25 | |
| 2016-11-12 | Tim Boetsch | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor | 70% |
| 2016-04-23 | Robert Whittaker | Loss | U-DEC | UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux | 36% |
| 2016-01-30 | Kevin Casey | Win | KO/TKO | UFC on FOX 18 | 65% |
| 2015-05-23 | Uriah Hall | Win | S-DEC | UFC 187: Johnson vs. Cormier | 51% |
| 2015-01-31 | Tom Watson | Win | U-DEC | UFC 183: Silva vs. Diaz | 64% |
| 2014-09-05 | Chris Camozzi | Win | S-DEC | UFC Fight Night 50 | 51% |
| 2014-05-10 | Ed Herman | Loss | U-DEC | UFC Fight Night 40 | 71% |
| 2013-11-06 | Tim Kennedy | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC Fight Night 31 | 72% |
| 2013-09-04 | Tor Troéng | Win | U-DEC | UFC Fight Night 28 | 64% |
| 2013-05-18 | João Zeferino | Win | U-DEC | UFC on FX 8 | |
| 2013-01-26 | Sean Spencer | Win | SUB | UFC on FOX 6 | |
| 2012-07-11 | Andrew Craig | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC on FUEL TV 4 | 37% |
| 2012-02-04 | Michael Kuiper | Win | U-DEC | UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit | |
| 2011-08-06 | Paul Bradley | Win | U-DEC | UFC 133: Evans vs. Ortiz 2 | |
| 2010-12-11 | Jesse Bongfeldt | Draw | M-DEC | UFC 124: St. Pierre vs. Koscheck 2 | |
| 2010-09-15 | Rich Attonito | Loss | U-DEC | UFC Fight Night 22 | |
| 2010-05-21 | Travis Lutter | Win | TKO | Moosin: Sylvia vs Pudzianowski |