Alexander Hernandez

18–9–0 · Lightweight · Age 33 · 18 UFC fights

Skill (today) +3.08

Uncertainty (σ) 0.78

As of 2026-09-13

Skill trajectory

Line: estimated skill after each fight. Band: ±1σ uncertainty.

Date	Opponent	Result	Method	Event	Model P(win), pre-fight
2026-04-25	Rafa García	Loss	U-DEC	UFC Fight Night	48%
2025-09-13	Diego Ferreira	Win	KO/TKO	UFC Fight Night	40%
2025-08-16	Chase Hooper	Win	KO/TKO	UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev	31%
2025-03-15	Kurt Holobaugh	Win	U-DEC	UFC Fight Night	51%
2024-10-05	Austin Hubbard	Win	S-DEC	UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree	38%
2024-04-06	Damon Jackson	Loss	S-DEC	UFC Fight Night	49%
2023-10-07	Bill Algeo	Loss	U-DEC	UFC Fight Night	48%
2023-02-18	Jim Miller	Win	U-DEC	UFC Fight Night	59%
2022-12-10	Billy Quarantillo	Loss	KO/TKO	UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev	53%
2022-02-12	Renato Moicano	Loss	SUB	UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2	46%
2021-10-02	Mike Breeden	Win	KO/TKO	UFC Fight Night
2021-02-27	Thiago Moisés	Loss	U-DEC	UFC Fight Night	51%
2020-10-31	Chris Gruetzemacher	Win	KO/TKO	UFC Fight Night	64%
2020-05-13	Drew Dober	Loss	KO/TKO	UFC Fight Night	56%
2019-07-20	Francisco Trinaldo	Win	U-DEC	UFC on ESPN 4	56%
2019-01-19	Donald Cerrone	Loss	KO/TKO	UFC on ESPN+ 1	70%
2018-07-28	Olivier Aubin-Mercier	Win	U-DEC	UFC on FOX 30	46%
2018-03-03	Beneil Dariush	Win	KO/TKO	UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
2017-11-10	Derrick Adkins	Win	TKO	LFA 27: Watley vs. Wilson
2016-07-29	Chris Pecero	Win	SUB	RFA 41: Clark vs. Giles
2015-09-26	Rodrigo Sotelo Jr.	Win	SUB	Hero FC: Best of the Best 6
2015-01-17	Jacob Capelli	Win	DEC	Hero FC: Best of the Best 4
2014-09-12	Martin Walker	Win	TKO	Best of the Best 3
2013-09-28	Joel Scott	Win	DEC	Texas Pride
2013-06-21	Jamall Emmers	Loss	DEC	Pride of the Valley 2
2013-03-16	David Salazar	Win	TKO	El Orgullo del Valle
2012-10-20	Dimitre Ivy	Win	DEC	Unknown