Rafael Tobias
14–3–0 · Light Heavyweight · Age 23 · 2 UFC fights
Skill (today)
+1.31
Uncertainty (σ)
0.98
As of
2026-09-13
Skill trajectory
Line: estimated skill after each fight. Band: ±1σ uncertainty.
Fight ledger
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Event | Model P(win), pre-fight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Lucas Fernando | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry | |
| 2026-03-07 | Diyar Nurgozhay | Loss | U-DEC | UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 | |
| 2025-09-23 | Jair de Oliveira | Win | SUB | Contender Series 2025 | |
| 2025-04-12 | Wellington Lopes | Win | TKO | TKO Palmasnet 3 | |
| 2024-08-01 | Marcelo Alejandro Nuñez Sparling | Win | TKO | FFC 79: Sordi vs. Lezama | |
| 2024-04-21 | Willyanedson Paiva | Win | DEC | Fight Music Show | |
| 2024-04-06 | Guilherme Cunha | Win | SUB | Fighter Stars 3 | |
| 2023-12-09 | Luis Oliveira | Win | SUB | Castro Fight Night 2 | |
| 2023-07-07 | Miguel Porto | Loss | TKO | LFA 162: Conceição vs. Lopes | |
| 2023-04-15 | Diego Frigotto | Win | TKO | Spartacus MMA | |
| 2023-03-25 | Rick Martin | Win | SUB | Spartacus MMA 34 | |
| 2022-10-29 | Nathan Oliveira | Win | DEC | Spartacus MMA 19 | |
| 2022-09-10 | Alexandre Borges | Win | TKO | Spartacus MMA 12 | |
| 2022-08-20 | Haroldo Mesquita | Win | SUB | Spartacus MMA 9 | |
| 2022-07-28 | Sombay Silvino | Win | DEC | CWB Fight League 28 | |
| 2022-04-16 | Guilherme Cena | Win | SUB | Brazilian Fighting Series 8 | |
| 2022-03-19 | Roger Freitas | Win | TKO | Metanoia FC |