Kyle Nelson
17–7–1 · Lightweight · Age 35 · 12 UFC fights
Skill (today)
+2.59
Uncertainty (σ)
0.89
As of
2026-09-13
Skill trajectory
Line: estimated skill after each fight. Band: ±1σ uncertainty.
Fight ledger
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method | Event | Model P(win), pre-fight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Terrance McKinney | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC Fight Night | 52% |
| 2025-10-18 | Matt Frevola | Win | U-DEC | UFC Fight Night | 52% |
| 2024-09-07 | Steve Garcia | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC Fight Night | 43% |
| 2024-03-30 | Bill Algeo | Win | KO/TKO | UFC Fight Night | 37% |
| 2023-09-16 | Fernando Padilla | Win | U-DEC | UFC Fight Night | 31% |
| 2023-06-10 | Blake Bilder | Win | U-DEC | UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana | 24% |
| 2023-02-04 | Doo Ho Choi | Draw | M-DEC | UFC Fight Night | |
| 2022-07-23 | Jai Herbert | Loss | U-DEC | UFC Fight Night | 36% |
| 2020-09-12 | Billy Quarantillo | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC Fight Night | 30% |
| 2019-09-21 | Polo Reyes | Win | KO/TKO | UFC on ESPN+ 17 | 55% |
| 2019-05-04 | Matt Sayles | Loss | SUB | UFC on ESPN+ 9 | 46% |
| 2018-12-08 | Diego Ferreira | Loss | KO/TKO | UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega | |
| 2018-11-19 | Morteza Rezaei | Win | TKO | RXF 32 | |
| 2017-05-27 | Khama Worthy | Win | TKO | BTC 1: Genesis | |
| 2017-04-25 | Gabriel Manuca | Win | SUB | RXF 26: Brașov Fight Night 2 | |
| 2016-10-28 | Jonathan Brookins | Win | DEC | Fight Night 2 | |
| 2016-06-06 | Zoltán Turi | Win | SUB | RXF 23: Judgment Day | |
| 2016-04-23 | Justin Bourgeois | Win | TKO | Elite 1 MMA | |
| 2015-09-12 | Adrian Hadribeaj | Loss | DEC | TXC Legends 6 | |
| 2014-05-30 | Ainsley Robinson | Win | SUB | SCC 2 | |
| 2014-03-08 | Alex Halkias | Win | DEC | Provincial FC 2 | |
| 2013-06-29 | Neelan Hordatt | Win | DEC | SCC 1 | |
| 2013-05-10 | Maxime Dubois | Win | TKO | UGC 32: Moment de Vérité | |
| 2012-10-19 | Jo Petahtegoose | Win | SUB | Score Fighting Series 6 | |
| 2012-03-17 | Michael Dufort | Win | DEC | Ringside MMA 13 |