UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

2024-08-17

Model record on this card: 6–4 on 10 graded bouts. Picks computed pre-fight, never edited.

Model accuracy62.5%

Model log loss0.567

Closing line accuracy50.0%

Closing line log loss0.688

Disagreement12.5%

On 8 graded fights with a closing line.

What these numbers mean

Model accuracy: How often the side our model favored won.
Model log loss: Grades the probabilities themselves, and it punishes confident misses hardest. Lower is better; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.693.
Closing line accuracy: How often the bookmakers' final favorite won, on the same fights we graded ourselves on.
Closing line log loss: The same probability grade for the bookmakers' final line. Lower is better.
Disagreement: Share of fights where our pick differed from the bookmakers' favorite.

Fighter

Opponent

Result

Method

Model P(fighter)

Stats

Loss

S-DEC

56%

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