UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2

2024-03-09

Model record on this card: 7–3 on 10 graded bouts. Picks computed pre-fight, never edited.

Model accuracy83.3%

Model log loss0.440

Closing line accuracy66.7%

Closing line log loss0.525

Disagreement16.7%

On 6 graded fights with a closing line.

What these numbers mean

Model accuracy: How often the side our model favored won.
Model log loss: Grades the probabilities themselves, and it punishes confident misses hardest. Lower is better; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.693.
Closing line accuracy: How often the bookmakers' final favorite won, on the same fights we graded ourselves on.
Closing line log loss: The same probability grade for the bookmakers' final line. Lower is better.
Disagreement: Share of fights where our pick differed from the bookmakers' favorite.

Fighter

Opponent

Result

Method

Model P(fighter)

Stats

Win

KO/TKO

68%

✓